自AI出現以來，人們一方面享受著科技帶來的便利，另一方面卻在心底暗自擔憂有一天會被AI 取代。在《2035超級趨勢: 先鋒集團首席經濟學家的AI剖析與投資布局》一書中，作者借用兩個職業的命運——總機接線員與基金會計師，為這個普遍的擔憂提供了清晰而務實的解答。同樣的科技，為什麼對這兩個職業帶來了完全相反的結果？
🌟總機接線員 – 被科技直接取代的典型
在1950 年代的美國，電信業僱用了超過34萬名總機接線員。他們每天最主要的工作，就是接聽電話並幫忙轉接線路。這份工作內容相當單一且重複。
正因如此，當自動呼叫分配器與語音應答系統出現後，這些科技幾乎直接覆蓋了接線員 90% 的工作內容。雖然接線員也需要溝通技巧，但這部分僅佔整體任務的一小部分，不足以讓這個職業在自動化浪潮中存活下來。
🌟基金會計師
對比之下，與基金會計師的故事，則展現了科技如何「強化」而非「取代」人類工作。
基金會計師的主要職責包括：計算基金資產淨值、交易結算、編製財務報告，以及確保合規披露，讓基金的財務資訊透明且準確。
在1989 年時，他們還需要從印表機取出紙本報表，用自動鉛筆一筆一筆手動計算基金淨值。隨著電腦普及，再到如今的 AI 技術出現，這些工具大幅提升了會計師的工作效率。
結果美國的會計相關職位從 1950 年的不到 40 萬人，成長到如今超過 140 萬人，不但沒有減少，反而大幅增加。
關鍵原因在於：
🏷️任務多元化 ：基金會計工作除了日常資料輸入，還包含法規遵循、異常調查、風險控管與策略分析等。這些任務需要高度的專業判斷、經驗累積與多維度思考，單一科技很難完全取代。
🏷️從例行公事中解放：AI 與財務軟體有效取代了最繁瑣的手動計算與資料輸入工作，讓會計師得以把時間與精力，投入到更高價值的工作上。
🏷️品質提升 ：科技讓會計師得以進行更精密的模擬、預測與分析，大幅提升財務報告的準確性與深度，進而增加了市場對高品質會計與顧問服務的需求。
決定你工作未來的兩個核心因素
你的工作命運，其實主要取決於
🔖工作性質
如果你的工作涉及多樣化任務、需要複雜判斷與多維度思考，AI 將成為你強大的助手，大幅提升你的效率與產出品質。如果你的工作主要是重複性高、流程固定、決策需求低的單一作業，那麼這些正是 AI 最擅長的領域，也最容易被取代。
🔖科技提升服務質素後，是否能創造額外價值
以總機接線員為例，顧客其實並不會因為接線生服務質素高，把轉線服務轉得特別好，而願意付額外價錢。所以當自動化系統能以更低成本達到相同標準時，人類勞動力就變得可有可無。
反觀基金會計師：除了記帳，他們更重要的是對財務數據的解讀、風險預測與策略建議。這類工作的深度與廣度幾乎沒有上限。當科技把他們從繁瑣工作中解放出來，他們就能提供更高價值的服務，而企業也願意為此付出更高報酬，這份工作也就變得更難被取代。
結語
AI 不會簡單地「取代工作」，它更像是放大鏡——會把原本工作的本質放大。
工作越是重複、標準化，就越容易被取代；工作越需要人類的判斷力、創造力與複雜思考，就越可能因為 AI 而變得更有價值。
與其擔心被 AI 取代，不如問自己一個問題：在 AI 幫我處理完例行工作的同時，我能創造出什麼更高價值的貢獻？
這個答案，將決定你未來的職涯是否能與 AI 共存，甚至因此更上一層樓。
參考資料來源:《2035超級趨勢: 先鋒集團首席經濟學家的AI剖析與投資布局》 約瑟夫．H．戴維斯 著
Since the emergence of AI, people have been enjoying the convenience brought by technology while quietly worrying deep down that one day their jobs might be replaced by AI. In the book Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments, the author uses the contrasting fates of two professions—switchboard operators and fund accountants—to provide a clear and practical answer to this common concern. Why did the same technology produce completely opposite outcomes for these two occupations?
🌟Switchboard Operators – The Classic Example of Being Directly Replaced by Technology
In the 1950s in the United States, the telecommunications industry employed more than 340,000 switchboard operators. Their main daily task was answering phone calls and manually connecting lines. The job was highly repetitive and monotonous.
Because of this, when automatic call distributors and voice response systems appeared, these technologies directly took over nearly 90% of the operators’ work. Although the job also required communication skills, this aspect only made up a small portion of the overall tasks—far from enough to help the profession survive the wave of automation.
🌟Fund Accountants
In contrast, the story of fund accountants demonstrates how technology can “enhance” rather than “replace” human work.
The main responsibilities of a fund accountant include calculating the net asset value of funds, trade settlement, preparing financial reports, and ensuring compliant disclosures so that the fund’s financial information is transparent and accurate.
In 1989, they still had to take printed statements from the printer and manually calculate fund net values line by line using mechanical pencils. With the widespread adoption of computers and now the emergence of AI technology, these tools have dramatically improved accountants’ efficiency.
As a result, the number of accounting-related positions in the United States grew from fewer than 400,000 in 1950 to more than 1.4 million today. Instead of decreasing, the number has increased significantly.
The Key Reasons
🏷️Diverse Tasks: Fund accounting work involves much more than routine data entry. It also includes regulatory compliance, anomaly investigation, risk control, and strategic analysis. These tasks require high levels of professional judgment, accumulated experience, and multidimensional thinking. A single technology can hardly replace them completely.
🏷️Liberation from Routine Work: AI and financial software have effectively taken over the most tedious manual calculations and data entry tasks, allowing accountants to devote their time and energy to higher-value work.🏷️Improved Quality: Technology enables accountants to perform more sophisticated simulations, forecasts, and analyses, greatly enhancing the accuracy and depth of financial reports. This, in turn, has increased market demand for high-quality accounting and advisory services.
The Two Core Factors That Determine the Future of Your Job
The fate of your job ultimately depends on two main factors:
🔖The Nature of the Work
If your job involves diverse tasks, requires complex judgment, and demands multidimensional thinking, AI will become a powerful assistant that significantly boosts your efficiency and output quality.
If your job mainly consists of highly repetitive, standardized processes with low decision-making demands, then these are exactly the areas where AI excels—and where jobs are most easily replaced.
🔖Whether Technological Improvement Can Create Additional Value
Take fund accountants as an example: Beyond bookkeeping, their real value lies in interpreting financial data, predicting risks, and providing strategic advice. There is almost no upper limit to the depth and breadth of this kind of work. When technology frees them from tedious tasks, they can deliver higher-value services, and companies are willing to pay more for them. This makes the job much harder to replace.
Conclusion
AI will not simply “replace jobs.” It acts more like a magnifying glass—it amplifies the true nature of the original job.
The more repetitive and standardized a job is, the easier it is to be replaced. The more a job requires human judgment, creativity, and complex thinking, the more likely it is to become even more valuable because of AI.
Instead of worrying about being replaced by AI, ask yourself this question: While AI handles all my routine work, what higher-value contributions can I create?
The answer to this question will determine whether your career can coexist with AI—and even rise to the next level because of it.
Reference:
Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments, by Joseph H. Davis