Dmitry Balyasny, managing partner and CIO of hedge fund Balyasny Asset Management, stated that the largest tail risk for 2026 lies in the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to either exceed or fall short of expectations.
The emergence of ChatGPT at the end of 2022 sent shockwaves throughout the world. Over the past 3 years, companies have rushed to join the AI revolution, eagerly exploring how it can double productivity and create new business opportunities. In 2026, The exploration phase of AI seems to be nearing its end, firms will soon need to present their performance results to investors. Business leaders primarily pursue profit; if investments do not yield proportional returns, they will adjust their funding strategies.
Balyasny also highlighted an external risk that hedge fund managers are closely monitoring: if the AI industry grows faster than anticipated, it could result in job losses before employees have the chance to retrain for new roles. Although management has yet to see performance outcomes from AI, several Pay Trend Surveys have already indicated potential cuts in next year’s human resources budgets, likely based on expectations that AI could replace certain positions.
If there is a decline in demand—especially if so-called “hyper-scalers” AI companies revise their spending plans due to inadequate profits—this could lead to unexpected negative consequences and may suggest that AI is on the brink of becoming another bubble that bursts.
However, Balyasny believes that the more probable outcome is continued development of AI under the current conditions. So, are you ready to present your AI report card? 😏
Reference:
Reuters Link
對沖基金Balyasny資產管理公司的管理合夥人兼首席投資官Dmitry Balyasny表示，明年經濟最大的尾部風險在於人工智慧（AI）可能帶來的超預期正面或負面表現。
2022年底，ChatGPT的出現震驚了全世界。在這3年間，所有公司都捲入AI的漩渦，積極探索AI如何能夠翻倍提升生產力、開創新的商機。3年後，AI的探索期似乎已接近尾聲，各公司將需要向資方交出成績表。商業人士在投資上追求的無非就是利潤，假若投資與回報不成正比，自然會調整投資策略。
Balyasny也指出，不論AI的發展和落實是比預期快還是慢，都不會是好事。如果發展速度過快，大量員工在接受再培訓和尋找其他工作機會之前就可能已經失業。實際上，儘管各管理層尚未收到AI的績效成績，許多薪酬趨勢調查預告很多公司已減少明年的人力資源預算，這很可能是因為預期AI已經能取代某些崗位所至。
如果AI的發展速度慢於預期，尤其是所謂的超大規模AI公司因未能實現所需的盈利而調整支出計劃，這將是一個意外的負面結果，可能意味著AI會成為另一個泡沫爆破。
不過，Balyasny認為更有可能的結果是AI將繼續按照目前的情況發展。那麼，你準備好你的AI成績表了嗎？😏
參考資料來源:
路透社 Link